Tuesday, April 24, 2018

Analysis: ST Engineering

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Business and Market Analysis


The 4 main sectors that ST Engineering (“ST”) operates in are Aerospace, Electronics, Land Systems and Marine. ST Aerospace services include military and commercial maintenance, repair and overhaul and cabin interior reconfiguration. For ST Electronics, they provide smart cities solution, satellite communications and intelligent transportation solutions. ST Land Systems provides mainly defence and homeland security systems while ST Marine provides shipbuilding and engineering services for both defence and commercial ships.


In 2017, ST Aerospace represents 38% of ST overall revenue, followed by ST Electronics of 32% with $1b coming from its smart city business. This represents 15% of its total revenue and management expect to double it by 2022 through organic growth and future acquisition. ST Land Systems contribute 19% of overall revenue and due to the sluggish oil and shipping industry, ST Marine represents only 10%, less than half of what it used to be in 2014. 


In terms of geography, ST main operation is in Asia which include Singapore, Middle East and Asia Pacific region where 61% of its revenue comes from. USA is its 2nd biggest market followed by Europe. ST management expects 66% of future revenue growth to be from global markets with USA and Middle East remaining to be key for its defence exports. This is due to USA being the largest defence market in the world while Middle East is expected to grow at 9% p.a.  


Aerospace Industry

According to Deloitte 2017 Aerospace and Defence Outlook Report, the aerospace industry is forecast to grow strongly. This is due to the strong demand for newer and more advanced aircraft and growing passenger traffic especially in Asia-Pacific and Middle East region. Due to growing middle class and as air tickets become relatively cheaper, travel demand has been increasing at a CAGR of 4.7% for the last 10 years. Passenger and airfreight are expected to continue growing at 4.8% and 4.2% respectively. This has resulted in increased aircraft production which is expected to reach 1,550 units in 2021, a 14% increase as compared to 2016, and by year 2035, to 2,206 units. Airbus and Boeing had already indicated ramp up in production rate and more aircraft means greater demand for ST Aerospace services. 


Defence Industry
With rising global tensions, global defence spending is set to rise. HIS Markit’s Jane’s Defence Budgets Report had forecasted global defence spending to reach $1.67t in 2018, the highest level since the end of cold war. This is a 3.3% increase as compared to 2017 and was partly fueled by the Trump administration where he has recently approved a $700b military budget, the largest in US history. The USA is one of ST core market and this will create ample opportunities for them. Furthermore, with the reduction of USA corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%, this will further benefit ST as their US subsidiaries contribute 18.5% of their overall revenue (based on country of incorporation).

Singapore Defence and Home Affairs Security spending has continued to increase significantly due to the security threat that we are facing being one of the highest in recent years. Singapore Military and Home Affairs Security budget in 2018 is estimated to be S$14.8b and S$6.5b respectively. This is an increase of 25.6% for military and 66% for home affairs security as compared to 5 years ago. As a core supplier for Singapore military and security needs, this will also provide ample opportunities for ST across its sectors.


Shipping Industry
The marine and shipping industry is more exposed to oil prices as many of the firms are operationally related to offshore drilling. As such, due to the downturn in the oil and gas industry, ST marine sector was impacted. Furthermore, overcapacity in the shipping industry has continued to weigh down its own recovery. The low charter rates lead to reduce maintenance and CAPEX budgets which increase the competitive landscape of the marine industry. And with the recent surge in global trade protectionism, it can adversely impact the shipping industry as 80% of world trade in goods is carried by international shipping industry. All these factors may continue to weigh down ST marine sector profitability. However the recent recovery in oil prices might restart its growth.

Smart Cities
The smart cities market size is currently valued at USD$563b in 2016. With the current digital revolution, Frost & Sullivan is expecting the market to grow to $1.57t by 2020, which is nearly triple of what it is today and this provide ample opportunities for ST to offer its smart cities solution. ST management has targeted to double its smart cities revenue by 2022 and this seems achievable due to the strong market growth.

Order Book
As at end of 2017, ST order book stood at $13.2b which is near an all-time high. In 1Q18, ST Electronics and Aerospace announced that they had won $635m and $510m worth of contract respectively.   



Profitability

Looking at ST revenue growth for the past 10 years, it has been growing at a CAGR of 2.16%. Though this might seems low, ST provides the stability that may be sought by dividend play investor. ST Engineering has consistently pay out dividend of $0.15 a share per year for the past 5 years. Based on current share price of $3.47, this represents a respectable dividend yield of 4.3%. However, ST generally pay out dividend at around 90% of profits. This means that it only retains 10% for internal use such as working capital purposes or for future investment.  A detailed look at the company cash flow has shown that its strong balance sheet has allowed them the ability to maintain its high dividend pay-out ratio (refer to cash flow and stability section).


As mentioned, the two star performer of ST are its Aerospace and Electronics sectors. Since 2014, ST Aerospace and ST Electronics revenue have been growing at a CAGR of 5.3% and 7.4% respectively. ST Land Systems has stagnant while ST Marine has negative growth of -17% due to the impact from the shipping and oil and gas industry. Furthermore, ST Aerospace and ST Electronics has decent profit margin of more than 8%. As compared to its peer, ST Aerospace operation margin is usually around 20%, 4% point higher than SIA engineering. 

In 2016, there was a sharp drop in profitability in ST Land Systems because of the impairment cost for the closure of JHK, their land road construction equipment business in China which has been loss making since 2014 due to the lacklustre construction sector. This has impacted ST Land Systems margin which had since recovered. Just today, ST has announced that JHK has filed for bankruptcy after failing to dispose its assets due to the weak demand for industrial properties in China Zhenjiang area. The investment was fully written down in 2016 and management expect no material impact on its net tangible assets and earnings per share for the current financial year.       

Growth opportunities from the Aerospace and Smart Cities industry should support ST future growth. With the delivery of SAF next generation armoured fighting vehicle in 2019, this should boost its revenue in its Land Systems sector. As for ST Marine, hopefully the recovery in the oil and gas sector can sustain so that upstream investment will return and support the market.



Management Efficiency

ST ROE, which shows the return for every $1 of equity invested, is currently at 22.85%. This is good as compared to its peer such as SIA Engineering which generally has an ROE lower than 20%. However, as compared to past years, ST ROE has been trending down. This might be due to  investment made by ST for the past few years not fully bearing fruits yet.  


Cash flows and Stability


Free cash flow (FCF) is the amount of cash the company is able to generate after deducting the cash required for investment for the growth of the company. ST has been able to generate positive free cash flow for most of the year except in 2015 where they invested heavily in the bond market. As mentioned previously, the high dividend pay-out ratio is a concern to me as I am wondering why ST does not need to retain cash for its business. This seems not to be an issue as the company free cash flow is sufficient to cover its dividend pay-out and they even have additional cash to invest in the bond market. The high cash withdrawal in 2014 and 2015 was due to repayment of bank loans and investment in bond market respectively.   


With interest coverage of 12x, ST has strong ability to pay off its debt interest. Debt has been on a downtrend with current debt to equity at 0.5x. If required, ST has ample room to borrow more from banks or issue bond for investment or refinance its existing loan. Furthermore, ST tangible assets are able to fully cover its debt with a ratio of only 0.15x (every $0.15 debt is backed by $1 of tangible asset). Out of ST total debt, only 27% are variable rates liabilities which will be impacted by the movement of market interest rate. As such, an increase of 0.5% in market interest rate will only reduce ST profits by $1.5m or 0.25%.  

ST current ratio is at 1.21x. A figure above 1x means the company has the ability to use its current assets to pay all its current liabilities. Striping off its inventory, the quick ratio is at 0.76x. This has been generally consistent for the past 3 years after ST made a huge debt repayment in 2014 which resulted in the drop in its liquidity ratios. By looking at the inventory turnover days which shows the number of days required by ST to turn its inventory into sales, it has generally been consistent for the past 3 years with an inventory turnover days of 122 days in 2017, lower than 129 days in 2016 and 140 days in 2015. This show ST does not have the difficulty in selling off its inventory and therefore its quick ratio of less than 1 should not be a concern currently. 



Valuation

ST Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio of 21.2x is trading at a fair level as compared to its peers (SIA 20.6x, Honeywell International 69x, Airbus 26x, ABB Ltd 23.5x, Boeing 25x). 


ST historical share price over net tangible assets (NTA) shows that during market exuberance, it has touched an all time high of 12.3x in 2008 before the financial crisis hits while touching a low of 5.67x in 2012. It is currently trading at 9.38x, above its average and reaching its +1sd. 


I have adjusted ST historical share price per NTA to its current NTA to see how high it can go based on current NTA. ST share price has the potential to touch a high of $4.55 during bullish market while a low of $2.10 during bearish market. If bullish market condition persist, I would give it a target price of $3.93. If market turn bearish, my 2 points of accumulation would be at $2.66 and $2.24 respectively.   


Summary


*Profitability and stability: Collectively, both metrics, which is fundamentally important to all businesses, represent   40%.
*Market and environment: This measure the current market risk or opportunity that are presented to the   company which have an impact on the direction of its share price. 
*Valuation: Determine if the share price is currently undervalued or overvalued. 

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